Brands should think like futurists and shape the tomorrow they want to see

What do futurists believe and how do their views differ from the typical global citizen?

It’s a simple question but one with no easy answer and so my team set out to explore this, partnering with the Global Futures Society, the largest global collective of futurists under the aegis of Dubai Future Foundation, in order to find out what makes futurists tick.

We asked their members and other futurists to participate in a unique survey: by asking the same questions that we posed in our Ipsos Global Trends study, our goal was to uncover the attitudinal differences between those who are shaping the future, and everyday citizens.

The resulting Portrait of a Futurist study covers key changes they believe will shape the future — but it also reveals some important lessons for marketers and brands. Understanding how futurists think can help you navigate similar issues within your organisation.

Why focus on futurists?

It’s admittedly a niche profession. By some counts there are only a few thousand futurists around the world, but this is very likely underestimated. Our study found that futurists are drawn to the profession from a wide range of backgrounds. Some have formal training, others do not. They work for companies, consultancies, governments and organisations of all shapes and sizes — and while some have futurist or foresight in their job titles, many do their work under different banners.

Moreover, futurism and strategic foresight are a growing need in business as we navigate an increasingly volatile and uncertain world. As Alvin and Heidi Toffler wrote in their seminal 1970 book Future Shock, the role of a futurist is to manage change through the art, science and politics of foresight.

‘The devil is in the detail’: What does the marketing team of the future look like?“Every society faces not merely a succession of probable futures, but an array of possible futures and a conflict over preferable futures. The management of change is the effort to convert certain possibles into probables, in pursuit of agreed-on preferables. Determining the probable calls for a science of futurism. Delineating the possible calls for an art of futurism. Defining the preferable calls for a politics of futurism.”

Said another way, the purpose of foresight is not just to envision the future, but to shape the future. Let that sink in for a moment: by studying potential futures, you likely have the power to bend them to your preferred outcome. That’s why this set of skills is so powerful, and so in demand for companies who know how to wield it wisely.

What defines futurists?

In our study, we found some sharp distinctions about how futurists view the world when compared to the average citizen. Our study also revealed that there are shared values among futurists, which differ in important ways from those of everyday citizens. For example:

Futurists are more happy and optimistic. Overall, global citizens tend to be happy and optimistic, but they are more optimistic personally — including their family, city and country — than the world around them. For futurists, it’s more so: they are happier, and more optimistic, until it comes to the future of the world as a whole; that’s where they are more pessimistic than global citizens.

This may be due to the nature of their roles, often required to look far into the future at broad macro forces impacting the world around us, from demographic shifts to climate change and socio-political conflict.

Futurists embrace technology and change. By many measures, futurists are less worried about change than the rest of the world. Only 27% of the futurists we surveyed felt that technology is “destroying our lives”, in stark contrast to 57% of the general population who felt this way. Similarly, only 56% of futurists think the world is changing too fast, in comparison to 83% of the public.

Futurists also support an expansive definition of gender: only 28% of futurists agreed that “there are only two genders – male and female – and not a range of gender identities” (vs 56% of citizens). Similarly, only 35% of futurists agreed that “most people ought to have children” in contrast to 52% of global citizens. It’s this kind of embrace of change that distinguishes the profession.

The future of marketing is inclusive, not because it’s current, but because it’s necessaryFuturists are keenly aware of perils, and solutions. The futurists we surveyed were much more likely to believe that we’re “headed for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly” compared to the public (96% vs 80%). Yet they’re much more optimistic that there’s still time to slow and reverse the effects; only 16% of futurists said that “it’s too late to do anything about climate change (vs 34% of citizens).

Futurists are also more likely to say that “having large differences in income and wealth is bad for society overall” than the average citizen (89% vs 77%), indicating a keen awareness of the perils of inequality. They’re more sceptical of business leaders, in that they’re more likely to think companies do not pay enough attention to the environment, and less likely to say “I trust business leaders to tell the truth” compared to global citizens (23% vs 44%).

Futurists think they’re better at planning for the future. Given their roles, it’s not surprising that futurists are more likely to say they’re good at planning for the future than everyone else, with 83% of the futurists we surveyed believing they were good or very good at planning for the long term. But the delta was significant when compared with 58% of the general public who agreed.

It’s worth considering why this might be true: they’re adept at looking for signals of change, considering multiple futures, and looking at all the angles. They’re also keenly aware, from their work with brands and organizations, that we have the power to shape the future by the very act of considering its direction and planning for its impacts.

We don’t know whether futurists are optimistic by training or by nature—perhaps their optimism is what draws them to the profession in the first place. But we do know that there is a very real mindset shift required in doing this work, which involves looking at all the potential downsides of future situations, and turning them into opportunities.

Lessons to learn

The biggest lesson to take away from this is that every marketer, insights professional, and business leader can learn from the tactics futurists use, from exploring macro forces to tracking trends and conducting scenario planning.

Preparing for the future allows businesses to act more rationally in times of uncertainty like the one we’re in now; they’re less likely to make rash decisions from a position of fear if they’ve done the planning.

On the consumer side, consider what causes the differences in opinion between futurists and citizens highlighted in this study. A different mindset, yes, but also an information gap on key issues. While the everyday citizen’s opinion is shaped by what is visible to them in the media, we can bridge this information gap by sharing our knowledge with them as well.

This shaping of consumer opinion is an enormous opportunity, and we have a responsibility to act in our collective best interests.

Lastly, a word about agency and positivity. When the view of the future looks dire —because it will from time to time — be intentional about adopting an optimistic mindset by looking for the silver linings and the business opportunities inherent in those futures.

Consider your personal, professional and corporate role in shaping the world, and continue to define and strategize for probable, possible and preferable futures.

Jennifer Bender is an associate partner at Ipsos Strategy3. As the head of our global practice on trends and foresight, she drives the development of methodologies to help clients anticipate and grow from change, and co-authors the annual Ipsos Global Trends study.